Decision-Making Model: Natural Science Methods in the Study of Man and Society

Kolonin, Anton Germanovich
PhD in IT, Lead Specialist, the Center for Transfer and Commercialization Technology, Senior Lecturer, Section of Discrete Mathematics and Computer Science of Mechanics and Mathematics Department, Novosibirsk State University, IT Architect at Tornado, Founder of the Aigents, Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, Expert at the Lifeboat Foundation
akolonin@gmail.com)

Abstract
We propose a mathematical computational model for decision-making by an individual and a social group as a whole based on the modern theory of graphs and meta graphs, representation of knowledge and behavioral patterns in graph form, theories of functional systems and reflexive control, modeling of inference processes and decision-making based on probabilistic and fuzzy logic as well as the principle of free energy, supported by research in the field of social psychology.
We show how this model can explain typical soft control and manipulation techniques used in psychotherapy, marketing, social engineering, etc. This model can make it possible to predict social dynamics in the conditions of modern social and communication networks and build applied solutions, allowing an individual member of the community and society to become more efficient and protecting such people from adverse information impacts.

Keywords: cognitive model, multi-agent dynamics, behavior control, decision making, social proof